6401.0 - Consumer Price Index, Australia, Dec 2016 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 25/01/2017   
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MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO CHANGE


CPI GROUPS

The discussion of the CPI groups below is ordered in terms of their absolute significance to the change in All groups index points for the quarter (see Tables 6 and 7). Unless otherwise stated, the analysis is in original terms.

Weighted average of eight capital cities, Percentage change from previous quarter
Graph: Weighted average of eight capital cities, Percentage change from previous quarter



ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO GROUP (+2.8%)

The main contributor to the rise in the alcohol and tobacco group this quarter is tobacco (+7.4%).The rise in tobacco is mainly due to flow on effects from the federal excise tax increase effective 1 September 2016.

Over the last twelve months, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 5.9%. The main contributor to the rise is tobacco (+13.2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 1.3% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is tobacco (+3.4%).


TRANSPORT GROUP (+1.7%)

The main contributor to the rise in the transport group this quarter is automotive fuel (+6.7%). Automotive fuel rose in October (+2.4%), November (+2.6%) and December (+3.7%). All fuel types recorded rises this quarter. The rise is partially offset by a fall in motor vehicles (-0.6%).

The following graph shows the pattern of the average daily prices for unleaded petrol for the eight capital cities over the last fifteen months.

AVERAGE PRICE OF UNLEADED PETROL (91 OCTANE), cents per litre
Graph: AVERAGE PRICE OF UNLEADED PETROL (91 OCTANE), cents per litre


Over the last twelve months, the transport group fell 0.3%. The main contributors to the fall are motor vehicles (-1.9%) and automotive fuel (-1.1%). This fall is partially offset by rises in other services in respect of motor vehicles (+1.4%) and urban transport fares (+2.3%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the transport group rose 1.9% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is automotive fuel (+6.7%).


FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES GROUP (+0.6%)

The main contributors to the rise in the food and non-alcoholic beverages group this quarter are restaurant meals (+1.1%), other food products n.e.c. (+5.4%) and vegetables (+2.5%).

Over the last twelve months, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group rose 1.8%. The main contributors to the rise are vegetables (+12.5%), fruit (+6.9%) and restaurant meals (+2.4%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group rose 0.3% this quarter. The main contributors to the rise are restaurant meals (+1.1%) and vegetables (+1.6%).


FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES GROUP (-0.8%)

The main contributor to the fall in the furnishings, household equipment and services group this quarter is furniture (-1.5%).

Over the last twelve months, the furnishings, household equipment and services group rose 0.6%. The main contributor to the rise is child care (+8.1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the furnishings, household equipment and services group fell 0.6%. The main contributor to the fall is household textiles (-4.8%).


RECREATION AND CULTURE GROUP (+0.6%)

The main contributor to the rise in the recreation and culture group this quarter is domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+5.5%). The rise in domestic holiday travel and accommodation is due to the October school holidays and the lead up to the peak summer holiday period.

Over the last twelve months, the recreation and culture group fell 0.5%. The main contributors to the fall are audio, visual and computing equipment (-9.9%) and international holiday travel and accommodation (-2.5%).

In the CPI, airfares are collected in advance (at the time of payment), but are only used in the CPI in the quarter in which the trip is undertaken. International airfares are collected two months in advance (October for travel in December) and domestic airfares are collected one month in advance (November for travel in December).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the recreation and culture group fell 0.6% this quarter. The main contributor to the fall is international holiday travel and accommodation (-3.3%).


HOUSING (+0.3%)

The main contributors to the rise in the housing group this quarter are new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+0.5%) and maintenance and repair of the dwelling (+1.0%). The rise in new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers is being driven by rises in input costs.

Over the last twelve months, the housing group rose 1.9%. The main contributor to the rise is new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+2.0%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the housing group rose 0.6% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+0.5%).


INSURANCE AND FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP (+0.6%)

The main contributor to the rise in the insurance and financial services group this quarter is insurance (+2.0%).

Over the last twelve months, the insurance and financial services group rose 2.7%. The main contributor to the rise is insurance (+7.7%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the insurance and financial services group rose 0.5% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is insurance (+1.2%).


HEALTH GROUP (-0.6%)

The main contributor to the fall in the health group this quarter is pharmaceutical products (-2.6%), which mainly fell due to the cyclical effect of a greater proportion of consumers exceeding the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) safety net.

Over the last twelve months, the health group rose 3.7%. The main contributor to the rise is medical and hospital services (+5.4%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the health group rose 1.0% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is medical and hospital services (+1.6%).


COMMUNICATION GROUP (-0.8%)

The main contributor to the fall in the communication group this quarter is telecommunication equipment and services (-0.8%).

Over the last twelve months, the communication group fell 5.9%. The main contributor to the fall is telecommunication equipment and services (-6.4%).

The communication group is not seasonally adjusted.


CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR GROUP (-0.5%)

The main contributor to the fall in the clothing and footwear group this quarter is accessories (-5.1%).

Over the last twelve months, the clothing and footwear group fell 0.9%. The main contributor to the fall is garments for women (-1.8%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the clothing and footwear group fell 0.2% this quarter. The main contributor to the fall is garments for women (-0.3%)


EDUCATION GROUP (0.0%)

The education group recorded no change this quarter.

Over the last twelve months, the education group rose 3.3%. The main contributor to the rise is secondary education (+4.6%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the education group rose 1.2% this quarter. The main contributors to the rise is secondary education (+1.2%).


INTERNATIONAL TRADE EXPOSURE - TRADABLES AND NON-TRADABLES

Implementation of the changes outlined in the September quarter 2016 feature article Review of the Consumer Price Index International Trade Exposure Series are included in this publication. The largest impact of these changes this quarter is the contribution of tobacco (+7.4%), which was re-classified from tradables to non-tradables.

The tradables component (see Table 8) of the All groups CPI fell 0.1% this quarter. Price changes for the goods and services in this component are largely determined on the world market. The tradables component represents approximately 35% of the weight of the CPI. The most significant contributor to the 0.2% rise in the tradable goods component is automotive fuel (+6.7%). The most significant offsetting fall in the tradable goods component is accessories (-5.1%). The fall in the tradable services component of 2.5% is driven by international holiday travel and accommodation (-2.6%).

The non-tradables component of the All groups CPI rose 0.8% this quarter. Price changes for the goods and services in this component are largely determined by domestic price pressures. The non-tradables component represents approximately 65% of the weight of the CPI. The most significant contributor to the 1.1% rise in the non-tradable goods component is tobacco (+7.4%). The most significant offsetting fall in the non-tradable goods component is pharmaceutical products (-2.6%). The rise in the non-tradable services component of 0.6% is driven by domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+5.5%). The most significant offsetting fall in the non-tradable services component is telecommunication equipment and services (-0.8%).

Over the last twelve months, the tradables component rose 0.1%, while the non-tradables component rose 2.1%. This compares to a rise of 0.7% and 1.7% respectively over the twelve months to the September quarter 2016.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the tradables component of the All groups CPI recorded no movement this quarter, while the non-tradables component rose 0.8%.

A detailed description of which expenditure classes are now classified as tradable and non-tradable is shown in the Appendix of the December quarter 2016 issue of Consumer Price Index, Australia (cat. no 6401.0).


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANALYTICAL SERIES

The All groups CPI seasonally adjusted rose 0.5% this quarter, compared to the original All groups CPI which recorded a rise of 0.5%.

The trimmed mean rose 0.4% this quarter, compared to a rise of 0.4% in the September quarter 2016. Over the last twelve months, the trimmed mean rose 1.6%, compared to a rise of 1.7% over the twelve months to the September quarter 2016.

The weighted median rose 0.4% this quarter, compared to a revised rise of 0.4% in the September quarter 2016. Over the last twelve months, the weighted median rose 1.5%, compared to a revised rise of 1.3% over the twelve months to the September quarter 2016.

ORIGINAL
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
Sep Qtr 2016 to Dec Qtr 2016
Sep Qtr 2016 to Dec Qtr 2016
%
%

All groups CPI
0.5
0.5
Food and non-alcoholic beverages
0.6
0.3
Alcohol and tobacco
2.8
1.3
Clothing and footwear
-0.5
-0.2
Housing
0.3
0.6
Furnishings, household equipment and services
-0.8
-0.6
Health
-0.6
1.0
Transport
1.7
1.9
Communication(a)
-0.8
-0.8
Recreation and culture
0.6
-0.6
Education
0.0
1.2
Insurance and financial services
0.6
0.5
International trade exposure series
Tradables
-0.1
0.0
Non-tradables
0.8
0.8

(a) not seasonally adjusted


A detailed explanation of the seasonal adjustment of the All Groups CPI and calculation of the trimmed mean and weighted median measures is available in Information Paper: Seasonal Adjustment of Consumer Price Indexes, 2011 (cat. no. 6401.0.55.003) available on the ABS website. Revisions to the seasonally adjusted estimates can be the result of the application of concurrent seasonal adjustment, described in paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.